Fed Days During the Weakest Week

Yesterday I mentioned that the week post op-ex in September has historically been the worst week of the year for stocks. I also showed a chart. Later a reader sent the following comment, “Thanks for this Rob, I'm enjoying going through your FED Days book. Seeing as we're in a week with an FOMC meeting, which you show has historically strong performance prior to the meeting does this study include the FED days effect?”

For those who may not be aware, Fed Days have had a strong bullish tendency over the years, but as I mentioned last night, this has historically been the most bearish week of the year. Below I have listed all Fed Days that have fallen during this week in September.

There have only been 11 instances, and I don't see a substantial edge in either direction. Returns are lower than with a typical Fed Day, but not so much that it will change my approach. So rather than worrying about the week, I will apply some of the other filters I’ve used before when considering Fed Day edges.

Several Fed Day edges may be found using the Fed Study label on the blog.

A more comprehensive look is available in The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days.