Monday, October 8, 2012

A Columbus Day Edge Revisited


While the stock market is open on Monday, banks, schools, government offices, and the bond market are closed.  In past years with the bond market closed, the stock market has done quite well on Columbus Day.  Of course the most famous Columbus Day rally was in 2008 when the market gained over 11% after having crashed the week before.  Last year in the 10/10/11 blog I showed that positive momentum leading up to Columbus Day has generally led to a positive Columbus Day.  Columbus Day has been celebrated on the 2nd Monday of October since 1971.  Below is an updated version of last year’s study.




I’ve circled some of the more impressive stats here.  With 77% of trades profitable and winners twice the size of losers risk/reward has been very favorable.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Looks like 2012 will be the lower probability play. A bigger drop next week?