As I discussed last month, opex week in December has historically been wonderful. But January – not so much. Below is a list of the last 14 January opex week returns. While it is not the case this year, January opex week often occurs in conjunction with Martin Luther King Day. So some of these weeks contained four trading days and some contain five.
As you can see there has been a decided downside tendency over the last 14 years. And despite last year’s strong performance the drawdown / run-up stats at the bottom remain especially compelling for the bears.