tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post7033914920038270271..comments2023-11-02T06:14:07.871-04:00Comments on Quantifiable Edges: Is Leadership Breadth Important For A Successful Bottom?Rob Hannahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07596674657839065754noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-75355678264825369952008-02-08T20:22:00.000-05:002008-02-08T20:22:00.000-05:00Regading the new low differential, Helene Meisler ...Regading the new low differential, Helene Meisler of TheStreet.com has tracked this for many years. It is certainly intuitive that it has some validity.<BR/><BR/>Rob, here's a future blog entry idea for you...in talking to some old-time traders from the go-go years in the 60's and volatile years in the 70's, I heard on numerous occasions that a valid indicator to start buying stocks hand over fist is when the number of all stocks trading above their 200 day moving average is 10% or less. If you could do a study on that, I think it would be interesting. ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-40825909550067864582008-02-08T11:10:00.000-05:002008-02-08T11:10:00.000-05:00"Quant Mythbusters" - why not ? Be careful of comp..."Quant Mythbusters" - why not ? Be careful of competition though I have heard that some are out of jobs, especially in credit departments...<BR/><BR/>Keep up the good work !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-18235727599941892122008-02-08T10:58:00.000-05:002008-02-08T10:58:00.000-05:00Daniel,Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The new ...Daniel,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The new low data certainly is intruiging at this point. I saw some studies back towards the end of January that cited the extreme number of new lows (1000 like you said) had reached levels that normally coincided with intermediate-term market bottoms.<BR/><BR/>The current new low differential is impressive. I am somewhat hesitant to view it as a divergence yet, though. I'm not certain the market pulled back far enough to call it a "retest". For instance, the SPY low yesterday was about 4.5% above the SPY low in January. I'd find the new low stats more compelling if the SPY and other indices came closer to or dropped below their Jan lows and new lows still contracted.<BR/><BR/>Whether or not yesterday turns out to be "the retest", the new low data you point out is definitely worth noting and worth following in the days and weeks to come.<BR/><BR/>Thanks again,<BR/>RobRob Hannahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07596674657839065754noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-68017286720219210632008-02-08T03:43:00.000-05:002008-02-08T03:43:00.000-05:00I pay a lot of attention to breadth when trying to...I pay a lot of attention to breadth when trying to assess a market bottom. However, after a large decline, New Highs make little sense: the small number we usually get is subject to large fluctuations (Poisson statistics). Instead, New Lows have more values. They give the fealing of the fraction of stocks than are unable to form a base and, rather, drop to lewr values during a bottom retest. That it is what I look the most. Compare the new lows during the Jan. 22nd bottom (around 1000, depending on the exchange and the data provider) vs yesterday's (about 100). It is one order of magnitude difference! What do you whant more to call it a succesful retest of a bottom?<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/> DanielAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com