tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post6862475608306524356..comments2023-11-02T06:14:07.871-04:00Comments on Quantifiable Edges: AAII Investors Survey Reaching Extreme BearishnessRob Hannahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07596674657839065754noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-66156113298094808752010-08-30T23:53:10.749-04:002010-08-30T23:53:10.749-04:00Since 1987, the average percentage of Bullish indi...Since 1987, the average percentage of Bullish individuals is 39% with a standard deviation of 11%. For the week ending 27/08/10, the Bullish percentage stood at 21%. That is over one & a half standard deviations below the total sample mean. Indeed, a very low percentage of Bullish individuals. I also note that this low level of positive sentiment coincided with a 6 week closing low for the S&P 500. By any account I would suggest that Bullishness is very Hall & Oates (She's Gone).<br /><br />With this in mind I decided to test whether a change in form was likely given an AAII Bullish reading of less than 25% in conjunction with a 6 week closing low for the S&P 500.<br /><br />4 weeks post this condition the average gain for the S&P 500 was 4%, Max 23, Min -5, St. Dev 5%, Win Rate 74%, Observations 31.<br /><br />The data is statistically significant at greater than the 1 in 100 level. I suspect a rally is on the cards despite September being an unusually cruel month for equities.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18367817002353700398noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-19055213528924262392010-08-30T18:58:36.815-04:002010-08-30T18:58:36.815-04:00I wish your tables contained MFE and MFA statistic...I wish your tables contained MFE and MFA statistics.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14840294591461536775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-77570404094607367282010-08-30T17:51:26.616-04:002010-08-30T17:51:26.616-04:00Are there any S&P trading edges during the mon...Are there any S&P trading edges during the month of September? We're down quite a bit from the highs earlier in the year and I was wondering...truthdoctor880https://www.blogger.com/profile/04453692176651030442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2676650858658561710.post-21055801943403116742010-08-30T17:49:31.055-04:002010-08-30T17:49:31.055-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.truthdoctor880https://www.blogger.com/profile/04453692176651030442noreply@blogger.com