Strong Bounce, Weak Volume

A few weeks ago I showed how weak bounces have a tendency to quickly roll right back over. The good news is Tuesday’s bounce was far from weak. Tonight I decided to show a similar study examining strong bounces after a sharp move to new lows:

As you can see there tends to be an immediate and lasting edge when the bounce is sharp like we saw on Tuesday. There was a weak spot with Tuesday’s bounce, though – volume. It came in quite a bit lighter than Monday. Adding this filter changes the results to look like this:

While there is no negative implications in the first few days, the apparent lack of big buyers (volume) does seem to have a negative impact on returns after day 4.

Instances are a bit low, and many of them aren’t very comparable to current conditions. There’s a big difference between a rebound from a 2% drop and a rebound from an 8% drop. Therefore, I’d suggest the appropriate thing to do with this study is keep it filed for future reference. Then perhaps review some of the charts I posted last night.