Monday, July 27, 2009

NYSE New Highs Contract While SPX Makes 50-day High

Also notable from Friday afternoon is the fact that new highs contracted substantially while the S&P made a 50-day high. The percentage of stocks hitting new 52 week high dropped from a little over 7% on Thursday to under 5% on Friday. I looked at other times the SPX made a 50-day high while the drop in new highs equaled 2% or more of the total issues.

(click image to enlarge)


What I found interesting and compelling about the above test was NOT the size of the average decline. In fact that was somewhat weak. It was the fact that 95% of instances closed below the trigger day close at some point in the next 5 days. This suggests that while the lagging new highs might not indicate an immediate selloff, the market has consistently struggled to move higher.
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2 comments:

  1. StrategyTraderJuly 28, 2009 at 10:13 AM

    Hi. Sorry to sound so thick. How do you get 95% here? From the numbers, I don't see a 95% probability. I see more like 60%

    Regards

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  2. Rob HannaJuly 28, 2009 at 10:35 AM

    It's not evident by looking at the table. 60% or so is how many closed lower 1 week later. 95% is how many closed lower than the trigger day close at SOME POINT during the week - regardless of where they finished the week.

    Rob

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