Monday, August 18, 2008

Nasdaq Showing Upside Persistence

The Nasdaq Composite has now closed higher 5 weeks in a row. In July we saw how negative persistence can be difficult to overcome. Now we have an example of positive persistence:



The kind of positive persistence we’re seeing often manages to continue higher over the following weeks and months.

Will strength in technology help to lift the market in the coming weeks, or will the negative influence of recent volume patterns lead to a move down? Should be interesting...
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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 18, 2008 at 2:51 PM

    looks like the nasdaq 100 is gonna finish down today.

    you think this "edge" is still valid?

    i really wanted to buy puts today but this post gave me pause.

    i like the lower volume on highs argument for the bears but that could be explained by the fact most big traders are on vacation.

    i guess we'll see what happens.

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  2. Trader KevinAugust 18, 2008 at 3:39 PM

    you think this "edge" is still valid?

    A) It's only one day.

    B) No edge works every time.

    i really wanted to buy puts today but this post gave me pause.

    You are drifting dangerously close to not taking responsibility for your own trades.

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  3. AnonymousAugust 18, 2008 at 6:02 PM

    I was not trying to blame anyone.

    I look at evidence on charts as well as news and information from this blog (great resource by the way and thanks) as well as others to base my decisions.

    Was just wondering how the one down day affected the probabilities or whatever.

    If the probabilities were unchanged it would be a huge buying opportunity I guess.

    Nasdaq and SOX looked really bullish up to today as posted on this blog.

    Anyone know what software is used to generate the edges by the way?

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  4. Trader KevinAugust 18, 2008 at 10:39 PM

    Anyone know what software is used to generate the edges by the way?

    I trust you are asking which software he uses for his analysis. I'm 99% sure it's TradeStation.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Ooh Baby!August 19, 2008 at 12:09 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Rob HannaAugust 19, 2008 at 7:55 AM

    Anon,

    The study posted here was long-term in nature. Notice I'm looking out X Weeks rather than X Days. The 1.5% drop should not invalidate it.

    In general I think of the studies as indicators - it's not unusual to see some conflicting.

    To help determine what the studies are suggesting as a whole I frequently use the Aggregator - see early July post on this.

    Kevin - Thanks. You're right. Nearly all studies are produced using Tradestation.

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  7. AnonymousAugust 19, 2008 at 12:19 PM

    The study posted here was long-term in nature. Notice I'm looking out X Weeks rather than X Days. The 1.5% drop should not invalidate it.

    I see. I had not noticed it was X Weeks instead of X Days.

    Thanks for the replies Rob and Kevin.

    ReplyDelete