Monday, July 7, 2008

5 Weeks Lower - Another Example Of Persistence

Last week I showed how the recent downtrend has shown persistence to a degree rarely seen since the 70’s. Below is another example of the downtrend’s persistence from tonight’s Weekly Research Letter.



This test was run from 1960-present. Only 8 occurrences makes it difficult to draw any solid conclusions. Still, these numbers are terrible. The maximum gain 20 weeks later is only 1.7%! The average loss is over 7% and the average trade lost over 4%. There were only three occurrences since 1988, but none of them were positive. They were 8/24/90, 10/13/00 and 3/2/01. Downside persistence like we’re seeing has historically been bearish.

For more information on the Quantifiable Edges Weekly Research Letter, click here. For a free sample, simply email weekly@quantifiableedges.com with your name and email address.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Downside persistence like we’re seeing has historically been bearish.

That's because no one is buying the dips.

Crude prices have ruined the markets.

If we're lucky, the NASDAQ will re-trace back to 3000-3200 before fall of 2009.

The next depression starts in 2010. :~(

BTW, great site you have here! It's one of my favorites.

dieselfuel