Poor Nasdaq Breadth A Bit Of A Downer

Below is one study that appeared in the Quantifinder last night. It suggests a bearish edge thanks primarily to the poor Nasdaq breadth on Thursday. I’ve updated the table from the 4/29/09 blog below.



I should note that while there appears to be a bit of a bearish edge, this study is faced with some conflicting bullish ones that I’ve discussed over the last few days in the Subscriber Letter. The outlook isn’t completely cut and dry. I did think the study was worth noting and updating though.

Weak Nasdaq Breadth On An Up Day

One of the most notable aspects of Thursday’s trading was the poor breadth in the Nasdaq, as only about 38% of issues closed higher. This is extremely rare on a day where the market rises. I looked at the possible implications a number of different ways in last night’s Subscriber Letter. The consensus whether looking at the effect on the Nasdaq or the S&P was bearish. Below is one study that looks at other times the Nasdaq Up Issues % (Advancers / (Advancers + Decliners)) came in lower than 40% while the S&P closed higher.

(click to enlarge)


Bearish results across the board over the following 2 weeks or so.