Wednesday, December 17, 2008

When The Fed Sparks A Rally To A 10-day High

Last night I looked at all times since 1982 the S&P 500 rose 1% or more on a Fed day and closed at a 10-day high:

The edge isn’t as prevalent initially, but over the next 2 weeks a downside tendency can be observed. Not shown above is that 70% of all instances closed below the close of the Fed day within the next 3 days. While this isn’t one of the strongest edges we’ve seen, it does suggest a pullback is the odds-on play. I also thought it was worth adding to the Fed Day Studies.

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