Thursday, March 12, 2009

CBI Drops to 3 - Now Neutral

In my March 3rd post I noted my Capitualtive Breadth Indicator (CBI) rose to extreme territory. It hit 12 on the afternoon of March 2nd and peaked at 18 the next afternoon. I showed a simple system in that post that went long on a reading of 10 or higher and then exited when the CBI closed at 3 or lower.

At around 10:25 this morning the CBI dropped back to 3. Barring a huge move south for certain stocks it appears likely to close the day at 3 or 2. This would be the exit signal for the system that was described. Should the S&P manage to close above the March 2nd close off 700.82, this trade would end up a winner (up about 4.5% as I type - edit - +7% by the close).

A CBI of 3 or lower is considered neutral. There is no level for shorting. The low CBI simply means the number of stocks with potential rebound energy from capitualtive selling is small. It doesn't neccessarily suggest the end of the rally. It does mean that further gains are not helped by the bullish implications of a high CBI reading.


gingersue said...

Nice call, Rob! Keep up the good work!

Woodshedder said...

Nice job Rob!