Thursday, October 8, 2009

Considering This Morning's Gap

The SPY is looking to gap up over 1% as I write this. It has also closed higher 3 days in a row. Back in April I looked at large gaps up after the market ha already risen. This study suggests risk/reward favors the downside should SPY gap more than 1% this morning. The fact that the SPY closed within a range rather than at a 10-day high makes it a little less encouraging.. Overall, should this gap hold until the open, I would estimate a mild edge to the downside from open to close.

1 comment:

Vitthal said...

I chanced upon your blog recently, and I've been really impressed by the quality of your work.

I had a thought that maybe, if you have a moment to spare, you could comment on:


I notice that US equity indices zigzag early on, but then often seem to make a decisive move around 11:30 in the morning. Any reason why this might be the case?

I ask because 11:30 is just about after Europe stops trading, and when this happens the move feeds back the next day into a higher European open. (I trade Indian equities, so this affects how I position myself the next day)

Many thanks,
vitthal