Assessing Market Action With Indicators And History
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
BKX Drops Ahead of the Fed
The banks got hit hard on Tuesday with the BKX falling nearly 3%. Below are results of the last 10 times the BKX dropped on the day before a Fed Day. Gains of 5% or more are highlighted in yellow.
could the last 2 years just be 'dead cat' bounces within a bear market? interested to know what were the results of earlier time period (like during the bull market period from 2003 to 2006.)
Jimmy had my question. Rob, do you have the results before the last few years? Seems like the big bounces were all in times of credit stress, and I'm wondering if we might be into a new phase of bank/Fed relations ...
I showed more detail in last night's subscriber letter and took the data back to 1993 (as far as my BKX data went). Prior to the last few years there was generally a mild bullish tendency.
In this blog I will be examining market action and quantifying my findings. Using sentiment, breadth, price and volume indicators - both standard and customized - I will try and uncover short-term edges which could be taken advantage of by market participants. I will frequently add opinion to these studies and may sometimes post opinions without quantifiable research behind them.
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I have traded professionally since 2001. From January 2003 through February 2007 my bi-weekly column "Rob Hanna's Putting It All Together" appeared on TradingMarkets.com. I have been conducting quantitative research and designing trading systems - mostly focused on short-term edges since 2004.
3 comments:
could the last 2 years just be 'dead cat' bounces within a bear market? interested to know what were the results of earlier time period (like during the bull market period from 2003 to 2006.)
regards, jimmy
Jimmy had my question. Rob, do you have the results before the last few years? Seems like the big bounces were all in times of credit stress, and I'm wondering if we might be into a new phase of bank/Fed relations ...
Thx
I showed more detail in last night's subscriber letter and took the data back to 1993 (as far as my BKX data went). Prior to the last few years there was generally a mild bullish tendency.
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