It’s important not to overreact to a small sample of trades and any single year with this system is a small sample. So I’m not terribly concerned that the performance was subpar. 2010 was marked with moves that were more persistent than usual. Examples would be the March-April rally, the September-October rally and the recent December rally – all of which plugged forward without the sort of oscillations that are typically seen. For the Big Time Swing, which often looks to play oscillations, this meant some extended sidelined periods. There has only been 1 trade in the 4th quarter.
Profits were also cut in half thanks to a few positions that signaled an exit for the next morning. Exits can be taken at the close or the next day’s open. Historical analysis has shown an edge in holding certain trades overnight after the exit is triggered. Doing so in 2010 would have cost about 4%, so this did cause me some frustration. Still, I’m not inclined to change my approach due to a small number of unfortunate overnight moves. Of course since it is an open system traders have the option of tweaking it any way they want.
For those looking for a system that they can use as a base to build their own system from, the Big Time Swing is an attractive option. It is all open-coded and comes complete with a substantial amount of background historical research. And since it is only in the market about ¼ of the time, it can easily be combined with other systems to provide greater opportunities. Once you’re ready to try and improve the system yourself you can also refer to the system manual or the August 2010 purchaser-only webinar – both of which discuss numerous ideas for customization.
And if system development isn’t your thing, the Big Time Swing System provides easy to follow mechanical rules that you can follow. The standard parameters have performed quite well. There are only about 12 trades per year averaging 7 trading days per trade. All entries and exits are either at the open or the close. And to be sure you have everything set up properly traders may follow the private-purchasers only blog that shows all SPY signals and possible entry/exit levels. This service is free for 12 months from the date of purchase.
For more information and to see the updated overview sheet, click here.
If you’d like additional information about the system, or have questions, you may email BigTimeSwing @ Quantifiable Edges.com (no spaces).