These results suggest a mild bearish edge over the 1st 6-7 days. The edge is not the most reliable as the “% Profitable” is close to a coin toss. The edge lies in the fact that downside risk has strongly outsized reward. I took a more detailed look at this last night in the subscriber letter.
A few caveats to consider. The huge snowstorms may have had a dampening effect on volume. Also, while this study suggests a possible downside edge, there are studies I am seeing that suggest upside. Things aren't cut and dry right now.
2 comments:
nr7 also yesterday
"..Things aren't cut and dry right now..."
Like when are they ever?
Collapse in treasuries past few days may indicate strong economic reports are ahead, in which case resolution to the upside can be expected.
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