The 1st one looks at times the market gapped down at least 1%.
Winners outnumber losers 7-3 but the losers are so much larger on average that the net expectation is about flat.
This next one looks at gaps between 0.5% and 1%.
Here again the odds appear to favor a rise over the course of the day. Losers were a bit larger here as well, but not nearly to the same degree.
Bottom line is that it appears likely the gap down will be bought up during the day, but if it isn’t then this could turn into another huge down day.
1 comment:
Very nicely nuanced interpretation, Rob. I was keeping both scenarios in my head at several key inflection points during the day, and this slant on things helped clarify the ongoing market movements.
Your work is unique and invaluable.
Post a Comment