As you can see the statistics still appear bearish, with the downside edge basically playing out over the 1st 3 days. But now let’s take a look at the profit curve.
As you can see over the last two years (and 15 or so instances) the setup has not provided a downside edge. Both the 1-day and 2-day profit curves looked very similar to this.
It is important to understand when historical instances provide a directional edge. But the market is always evolving. And sometimes setups that provided an edge for a long time will either stop working or will go a period of time without demonstrating the same tendency. It is important to monitor not only how has a setup performed over the long term, but also keep an eye on recent instances to ensure that edge is still being provided. In this case it doesn’t seem to be.