Wednesday, December 21, 2011

When 90% Down Days Are Followed By 90% Up Days

After seeing over 90% of the volume come to the downside on Monday, Tuesday registered a 90%+ upside volume day. A 90% down followed by a 90% up day is something that was never seen from 1970 – 2006. But this is the 10th time we’ve seen it happen since the beginning of 2007. Below I have listed the previous 9 and shown how the SPX has fared the following day.

Though instances are low statistics at this point appear solidly bearish, suggesting a possible 1-day downside edge. The high downside risk vs the small upside reward makes the results especially compelling for the bears.