Tuesday, May 15, 2012

A Strong Move To A New High In The VIX

The VIX closed at its highest level since January on Monday. In the past when it has closed at a high level on a strong move there has been a tendency for the SPX to bounce over the next 1-2 days. This can be seen in the study below.

The numbers appear compelling. Below is a profit curve using a 2-day hold.

Not quite as compelling with the recent fade, but perhaps still worth taking into consideration.

Of course this does not change yesterday’s observation that market conditions are abnormal and risks are elevated.

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