Tuesday, October 2, 2012

What Yesterday's VIX Action Hints At For Today

Somewhat unusual about the rise in the SPX Monday was that it was accompanied by a rise in the VIX as well.  Most of the time they mirror each other.  One quirk with the VIX is that it has a tendency to fall on Fridays and rise on Mondays. Therefore this setup is more common on Mondays than any other day of the week. The table below examines performance on Tuesdays after this has occurred.

I only show 1-day results here because anything longer shows no inclination.  And while the edge here isn’t terribly strong, it is interesting that the VIX’s inclination to rise on Mondays does not seem to completely eliminate the tendency for the SPX to pull back the next day.  Of course if this setup happens on a Friday, then the downside edge is more pronounced.

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