When VXO is Stretched to the Downside

One index providing interesting readings is VXO (the old VIX calculation).  On Monday it closed a little more than 15% below its 10ma.  And it may do that again today.  At one time, such rapid drops in the VXO were often followed by a move lower in the SPX.  But this has not been as consistent in recent years.  Below is a study I showed in last night’s Subscriber Letter.

Stats here seem to suggest a bit of a downside inclination.  But the equity curve tells a little bit of a different story.

The downside edge seemed apparent for the 1st 60 instances or so.  But the last 25, all of which occurred over the last 3 years since June 2010, have been extremely choppy and shown no progress.  For whatever reason the market seems to have changed, and traders should be aware of that.