Wednesday, June 4, 2008

When Months Start Bad

After shooting higher to begin the month the previous few months, the market decided to throw a curveball in June. These first two days have been a fairly rough start. I decided to see how SPY has historically reacted when the month got off to a bad start. For purposes of the test I shall define “bad start” as a down close the first 2 days and a loss of at least 1.5% over those two days.
Going back to 1993 I found 14 occurrences. Here are their stats over the next week:
Also notable is the fact that all 14 closed higher than the trigger day at some point over the next week.

Tough to put too much stock in a seasonal-type study like this one. (They are my least favorite from a trading perspective.) Still, combined with some other positives I’m seeing, such as last night’s breadth study and last week’s volume study, I’m inclined to believe we may see some upside sometime in the next few days.


Anonymous said...

has the cbi gotten any love ?

Dave appel

Rob Hanna said...

Been at "3" for a while. I updated the date on the sidebar. Thanks for reminding me.

Anonymous said...

VIX did hit +10% over 10dma yest. and equity p/c closing 1.14 lead one to try a buy at this morning low