Friday, August 7, 2009

QQQQ Closes at 5-day Low for 1st Time in a Month

The QQQQ closed at a 5-day low Thursday. This is the 1st time it has closed at a 5 day low in 21 days. It seemed to me that the 1st decent pullback after a long run higher could provide a bullish edge. So I tested it. There were only 7 previous instances of runs of 20-days or longer. In a search for more meaningful results I lowered the requirement to 10-days. Those results are below:

(click to enlarge)

There does appear to be a small edge based on the size of the average trade. The winning percentage is a bit disappointing. It isn’t much better than random. In all I’d say there’s a mild edge that largely plays out in the 1st 2 days.


Anonymous said...

Hi, where is the poster "Daniel"? He always stated financials had to lead us out of the recession. Now they're leading. It would be irrational for you to still be bearish Daniel, if you are true to your own analysis. Have you taken your own advice and gone bullish?

Rick said...

Just trying to understand where the 78% comes from.

In the first 2 days there was 108 trades, 69 of which were winning = 63%

Also it appears on some days there was neither a profit or loss?

ie. days 4, 8, 10