Friday, November 2, 2012

Employment Days Just Ain't What They Used To Be

Employment days have an interesting history and they have contributed to some worthwhile studies over the years.  By “Employment Day” I mean days that the Federal Employment Report will be released.  This occurs once per month and is normally on the 1st Friday of the month. Below is a chart of SPY performance on Employment Days during bull market environments.  Each trade was a fictional $100k.

What I find so interesting about the chart is that for a long time Employment Days in uptrends showed a strong propensity for gains.  But in 2000 this edge vanished.  Since then there has been no apparent advantage – bullish or bearish.  While it’s unusual to see such an abrupt change in market dynamics, it does serve as a nice reminder that such changes are always possible.

No comments: