Monday, October 27, 2008
Back To The Extreme
A couple of weeks ago I showed a table detailing a number of extremes the market had reached. The sharp bounce on 10/13 relieved many of them. Now some are back – along with a few new ones: (click to enlarge - for some reason I've had trouble making the .png's larger in Blogger the past few days)
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5 comments:
Rob
Today is 5 gapdowns in a row in SPY. Are there any other periods where this happened? Any idea of future returns after this type of consistent selling pressure at the open?
Using SPY data, I see if happening two times, on 3/28/06 and3/7/2008. Neither of the dates seem to be turning points either way.
the problem with the gapdowns lately is that we don't test the futures overnight lows in the regular session, which is keeping away any final capitulation... today the overnight ES low was 825 and NQ was 1136, those levels would have made new lows of the year if hit in the regular session, then if volume was 10% lower than previous lows of year session, and we recovered above those previous session lows of year, a technical bottom could be made...
-deacon
I'm the first "anonymous" not the second. I don't by the second's argument about capitulation. There is plenty of capitulation going on in world markets. Capitulation doesn't need to happen at a time when the US stock markets are open. The markets across the global are pretty much correlated. Wait to see capitulation in a New York time frame and you may have already missed the boat. (note: on an intermediate basis, capitulation may have already happened for the world market's...in Asia, last night.)
Nice job of working off some of the selling excesses today.
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