Until July, buying the S&P any time the CBI hit 10 or higher and selling it on a return to 3 or lower had a perfect record. The July trade turned out to be a loser. Below are statistics going back to 1995, which is as far as I was able to accurately reconstruct the indicator. The CBI has been tracked live for about 3 years now. All trades assume $100,000 into the S&P 500.
Impressive stats, but it’s important to keep in mind that the current environment is unlike anything we’ve seen since before data exists on this indicator.