Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Fed Days With The Market At An Intermediate-Term High

Fed Days have generally exhibited an upside bias for about 30 years.  Many times this has been thanks to the Fed giving a confidence boost to a struggling market.  But what of those times where the market is already at an intermediate-term high.  With the SPX closing at a new rally high yesterday this is the situation the market is now in.  Below is a study that take a look.

What I see here is that there has been no tendency for the market to advance under these circumstances.  There could even be a slight downside edge, but the numbers aren’t compelling enough for me to bank on that.  I’d simply view it as neutral. 

1 comment:

Michelle said...

That's why the momentum is slowly declining as stock market continued to move higher. I expect at some point for the market to sell off. I look at SP500 index because 1228 marks 61.8 fibonacci retracement level. If this level gets broken, then we could see SP500 return to its prior high (~1400).