This first study shows results since 1988 of committing $100k per trade on the 1st of the month if the SPX is trading above its 200ma.
The numbers all look very solid. About 2/3 of the trades were winners, and the winners were about 1.5 times the size of the losers, making for a profit factor of over 2.5.
Next let’s look at times like now when the SPX is below its 200ma.
The numbers here net out to a positive number, but just barely. It certainly doesn’t appear to be anything you would want to base a trade on.