Results here are impressive over both the short and intermediate-term. To get a better feel for the short-term returns I have listed the instances below.
The run-up to drawdown ratio here is quite impressive. I’ll also note that 7 of the 10 instances went on to have “successful” rallies. (“Success” means it either hit a new 200-day high or at least rose 2x as much as it had already risen off the bottom.) The 3 instances whose rallies did not succeed (circled in red) all saw run-ups of at least 2% before they eventually rolled over and made new lows.
More information on FTDs may be found here.
Positive aspects to this one include the strong breadth and the fact that it came after day 10.
Some obstacles to success include the fact that it is occurring under the 200ma and it is occurring after a substantial market decline.
2 comments:
Hi.
When you say "I discussed the other day that there has never been a Follow Through Day (FTD) that occurred AFTER a new 50-day high"
by "AFTER" do you mean the day immediately after the new 50 day high? If not, what exactly do you mean please?
Thanks
LBC,
I mean no rally following a decline of at least 8% has reached a 50-day high with without first seeing a FTD occur. Please refer to Monday's post for more detail.
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2011/10/this-is-1st-time-spx-has-rallied-to-50.html
Best,
Rob
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