Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Intermediate-Term Highs Prior to Fed Days

Wednesday is a Fed Day.  As I have discussed many times, Fed Days generally carry an upside tendency.  But this tendency is greatly impacted by certain variables.  A large collection of these variables may be found here on the blog under the “Fed Day”label.  And many more may be found in the “Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days”.

One variable I briefly discussed in the 11/3/10 blog was whether the market was already at an intermediate-term high.  Today I thought I would illustrate that study graphically.

First, let’s take an updated look at SPX performance on Fed Days when the SPX has NOT closed at a 20-day high the day before.

That’s basically 30 years of bullishness.

But now let’s see performance at times when the SPX did close at a 20-day high the day before.

No consistency and no pronounced edge in this sample of 36 instances.

Traders looking to play for a short-term Fed Day bump should be hoping the SPX does not close up and at a new high again today.

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