There I looked at patterns similar to the current one where SPY made a 10-day intraday low on day 1 and then posted an unfilled gap up along with a close above the open (and above the 200ma) the next day, as it did on Friday. I broke it down by instances that closed above the 10ma versus instances that closed below it.
So the current situation falls into the 2nd category. Wins & losses are basically breakeven but the losses were a bit bigger. I don’t view this as a bearish edge, but I think it demonstrates my point fairly well. Had we not bounced so much, we would have a better chance of seeing more follow-though. As is, it appears some caution and perhaps some profit-taking is warranted.