Monday, September 30, 2013

Big Gaps Down on Mondays

I took a look this morning to see how the market has typically reacted when faced with a big gap down on a Monday morning.  Results below examine all gaps of 0.75% or more and measure the performance from the 9:30 open to the 4pm close.

Numbers here look a bit poor.  I also ran a profit curve.

The curve shows that the downside edge appears to have lessened over time.  I also decided to break it down by the long-term trend.  These next 2 charts show results when below and then above the 200ma.

It appears the real damage has been done during long-term downtrends.  During uptrends, big gaps down on Monday's have been neither reliably bullish nor reliably bearish.  Additional evidence would be needed for me to initiate a new position.

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