Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Fed Days on the 1st of the Month

As I mentioned last night, Wednesday is a Fed Day. Fed Days have historically had a bullish inclination. Of course Wednesday is also the first trading day of August. I’ve documented numerous times that since the late 80s the first trading day of the month has had a bullish tendency. So I wondered how the market has performed on days that a Fed Day has coincided with the first trading day of month. There have only been six instances since the late 80s. I've listed them all below.

Early indications suggest a possible upside edge, but really we have too few instances to draw any conclusions without overwhelmingly lopsided results. Still, I thought this was interesting enough to share.


Peter Thompson said...

Nothing really there to indicate an edge of any kind. You'd want to see a 100% correlation in either direction to feel onto something.
farmland investments

implied volatility said...

Nothing to indicate any kind of edge? It shows 80% of events finishing in non-negative, with one -.35%. When combined with other stats it might help suggest at least limited downside risk.

I'm sure your "farm" and "forest" investments have 100% upside potential.../sarcasm.