Tuesday, March 4, 2008

After 4 Months Lower Are We Due For An Up Month?

I checked to see how the S&P 500 has reacted past times it finished down 4 months in a row. Going back to 1960 there have been 10 other occurrences with exactly 4 down months in a row. Of those 10 times, 5 finished higher the following month and 5 finished lower. The average winning month was 3% and the average losing month was 2.5%.

Looking at any time the market has closed lower 4 or more times, I found 21 occurrences. Ten finished the next month higher and eleven finished it lower. Average gain was 5.1% and average loss 4.5%.

The longest losing streak was in 1974 when the S&P 500 finished lower 9 months in a row.

Looking at consecutive lows on a monthly chart does not seem to provide any quantifiable edge.

1 comment:

ari said...

What about the rest of the year?

Someone I talked to said that EVERY time the first 3 months of the year are negative -- the market performance for the rest of the year has ALWAYS been strongly positive.

I would like to see if that is true -- 1st q. down = 9 months of gains.