Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Lagging Nasdaq Study Update

Last week I posted a study on the intermediate-term significance of a lagging Nasdaq. The results suggested more downside was likely in the weeks and months to come. There was 3 criteria for the setup. Surprisingly, the 3rd criteria was not met last week. “3) The difference between the current NYSE/Nasdaq ratio and the 10-week EMA must be at its widest point in the last 5 weeks. (The red line must be farther below the yellow line than it has been in at least 5 weeks.)” Updated chart as of 2/29/08 below:

Does the late-week change to the indicator benefit the market? It doesn’t appear so. I removed rule three and just tested on rules 1 and 2:

1) The NYSE must make a new 5-week high this week. 2) The current NYSE/Nasdaq ratio must be at least 3.0% below the 10-week EMA. (The red line must be 3.0% or more below the yellow line.)

The market was shorted if the above conditions were met and covered X weeks later. $100,000 per trade.

The results – listed below - changed very little. When the NYSE is hitting new short-term highs while the Nasdaq is lagging badly, it normally means the NYSE will succumb to the will of the Nasdaq. Like the original study, the expectation over the next 1-10 weeks is negative.

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