Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Sharp Rises On The Morning Of A Fed Meeting

The large gap up this morning is quite unusual on the day of a Fed meeting. I ran a test back to 1983 to find other times the market was significantly higher at 1:30pm Eastern time on the day of a Fed meeting. I was only able to find 3 other times where the market was up at least 1.5% by 1:30. On 8/21/84 the market tacked on another 0.04% in the afternoon. On 12/18/84 it added another 1.37%, and on 1/5/88 it lost 0.64%.

It will be interesting to see how today plays out.


Anonymous said...


curious if you have any studies on 4% + s$p moves as far as returns next 1,3,5 , 10 and 30 days ?

Anonymous said...

Impressive. I don't see intraday analyses backtested like you have. Keep it up!