Monday, October 10, 2011

A Columbus Day Tendency

While the stock market is open on Monday, banks, schools, government offices, and the bond market are closed. In past years with the bond market closed, the stock market has done quite well on Columbus Day. Of course the most famous Columbus Day rally was in 2008 when the market gained over 11% after having crashed the week before. Last year I showed that positive momentum leading up to Columbus Day has generally led to a positive Columbus Day. Columbus Day has been celebrated on the 2nd Monday of October since 1971. Below is an updated version of last year’s study.

I’ve circled some of the more impressive stats here. With 75% of trades profitable and winners nearly twice the size of losers risk/reward has been very favorable.


Highgamma said...

What about the day after Columbus Day? Is it a good short (does the market give back the gains or did it do so the previous week or not at all)?

Rob Hanna said...

I see no edge for the next day based on a positive Columbus Day.