Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Edges?

Today I give you some political stats:

First I wanted to see if there was general excitement about the new guy. In other words, there is not an incumbent victory…


Nothing terribly exciting here. Pretty much 50/50 over the next week.

Next I broke it down by party and ran the stats out a bit further.

Since 1920 this is how the Dow has performed after a Republican has won the white house. (I excluded 2000 since no one knew if a Republican or Democrat won for a long time after the election.)



Still not much better than 50/50 until you get out a couple of months.

Now lets see what has transpired after a Democrat wins:


A big Day 1 is apparent here, which could bode well for Wednesday if Obama wins. Beyond that – not much noteworthy. You’ll note that 40 days out the Democrat and Republican return is about the same.

No huge edges here. I’m likely done with this study for at least 4 years.