Wednesday, November 5, 2008

VXO Suggesting A Pullback Is Likely

I’ve discussed in the past that it is a common misconception that a low VXO is a bearish indicator. When the VXO becomes extremely stretched, as it is now, then that changes.

Instances are a little low, but both winning percentages and Win/Loss Ratio are very suggestive of short-term bearish implications. Also of note is that 18 of 20 instances (90%) closed lower at some point in the next 3 days. There was only one instance that failed to close lower than the entry at some point in the next 7 days. That instance was 10/19/98 which essentially traded sideways for 7 days before beginning a new leg up.

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