Monday, November 23, 2009

A Daily Breakdown Of Thanksgiving Week History

Seasonal influences are often cited around the Thanksgiving holiday. Therefore I decided I would examine returns during Thanksgiving week as well as the Monday following. Below is how the SPX has performed around Thanksgiving over the last 48 years.

Monday and Tuesday don’t seem to carry a sizable edge. Monday’s total return was actually negative prior to 2008 when it posted a gain of over 6%. Also notable is that the Monday AFTER Thanksgiving’s stats were skewed a bit by the 2008 results. Last year saw a drop of over 8% on that day. Even excluding 2008 there is a bit of a bearish edge apparent on the Monday following Thanksgiving.
Wednesday and Friday surrounding Thanksgiving have been the most consistent and bullish days of the period.


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David said...

would be interesting to see sector returns for Wednesday and Friday. Would suspect retail outperforms historically.

Steveo said...

Ok, I am going to do a little victory lap here.....

Black Swans do not drift in, they are delivered by a cruise missile in the middle of the night, holidays, or on the weekend.

As America tryptophans out and wakes up weary tomorrow, with half a trading day to "panic out with", this could be very interesting. Looks like nearly "perfect timing" by our financial overlords. Lots of Turkeys (aka Lemmings) getting cooked today.